Looking East Anew: Re-imagining Partnership Engagements for the Horn of Africa in a Multipolar Age

This briefing paper is intended for policymakers in African governments, regional economic communities, multilateral institutions, civil society actors, and private investors seeking to understand the shifting landscape of development partnerships in Africa, focusing on the Horn of Africa. It responds to the increasing demand for evidence-based guidance on how the region can engage strategically with emerging partners in a multipolar world, where traditional North–South aid models are increasingly complemented and sometimes challenged by new alliances. The brief’s objectives are threefold: (i) to highlight the new opportunities and risks presented by the diversification of Africa’s external partnerships; (ii) to illustrate these dynamics with case-based examples from the Horn of Africa; and (iii) to provide recommendations for strengthening agency, governance, and transparency in managing these partnerships.

The brief begins by situating the Horn of Africa in a geopolitical and developmental context. As a strategically located region bridging Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, the Horn is both a corridor and a frontier. Global multipolarity, accentuated by shifting UN engagement, including a stronger emphasis on the Horn in deliberations at the 80th UN General Assembly, has underscored the region’s growing relevance. In this environment, the Horn is increasingly courted by Gulf States, Asian powers, and other emerging actors whose interests align with food security, maritime logistics, infrastructure development, and renewable energy. This engagement represents a departure from the historic overreliance on Western donors and multilateral concessional financing, and it is reshaping Africa’s bargaining space. At the same time, the brief highlights that diversification is not unqualified. While Gulf actors and East Asian partners offer investment capital, project finance, and logistical knowledge, their modalities of engagement can be opaque and politically contested in nature. Debt sustainability, regulatory capture, and uneven value sharing remain significant risks. Furthermore, where subnational authorities enter agreements, as seen in Somaliland’s Berbera concession, the political legitimacy of deals can be questioned, creating tensions with central governments. This demonstrates the need for strong institutional frameworks and safeguards to protect public interests.

The case illustrations anchor these broader arguments to the evidence. The development of the Berbera Port and Economic Zone by DP World exemplifies how port concessions and economic zones can mobilize capital and create regional corridors while also revealing the complexities of sovereignty and political recognition. The Djibouti–Addis Corridor, supported by the World Bank and other multilateral institutions, illustrates the transformative potential of integrated port–road–rail investments when combined with such reforms. Djibouti’s green hydrogen ambitions show how renewable energy partnerships can position the Horn as an energy exporter but also highlight challenges related to capital intensity, desalination, and off-take commitments. Finally, the governance of extractives in Ethiopia and Eritrea reflects both the economic promise and the governance risks of resource-driven development.

The policy environment is evolving in response to these changes. The UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) has called for stronger digital connectivity and regional integration strategies, emphasizing that Africa’s future lies in harnessing innovation, technology, and intra-African trade. Multilateral development banks and OECD guidance on blended finance point toward more innovative financing structures, while frameworks like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) underscore the importance of regional alignment in negotiations with external partners. These policy signals converge on the need for African governments to enhance their bargaining capacity, safeguard transparency, and ensure that external partnerships are embedded in national and regional development strategies.

The conclusion emphasises that in a multipolar world, the Horn of Africa must exercise agency in choosing its partnerships and balance immediate development needs with long-term institutional resilience. Looking East and engaging with Gulf and Asian partners should not be viewed as a rejection of Western actors but rather as an expression of Africa’s agency to diversify. For these partnerships to be genuinely transformative, governments must strengthen regulatory institutions, civil society must demand transparency, and research-policy actors, such as Scofield Associates, must play a critical role in bridging analysis with policy action. By structuring partnerships that prioritise shared, long-term value over short-term gains, the Horn can chart a development trajectory that is both resilient and equitable, advancing food security, green energy transition, and institutional strengthening in ways that serve African priorities.